A recent study conducted by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle has predicted that the number of global deaths directly caused by antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections will rise to 1.91 million a year by 2050. This alarming forecast suggests that antibiotic resistance could result in the deaths of 39 million people between now and 2050, with more than a third of those deaths potentially preventable through proactive measures.
Antibiotic resistance occurs when microbes evolve the ability to survive drugs that were once effective in treating infections. This phenomenon is exacerbated by the widespread use of antibiotics in both healthcare and farming, leading to an increasing number of drug-resistant microbes that can spread globally. However, the full extent of the problem remains unclear.
The study found that while overall deaths due to antibiotic resistance have been on the rise, the number of fatalities among young children has actually decreased, thanks to vaccinations and improved healthcare. In contrast, deaths among adults over 70 have increased by more than 80 percent.
Despite a temporary decline in deaths in 2020 and 2021, likely due to COVID-19 control measures reducing other infections, the study's most likely scenario predicts a significant increase in deaths from antibiotic resistance in the coming decades. However, the development of new antibiotics and improved access to healthcare could potentially avert millions of deaths.
It is important to note that the study's projections are based on certain assumptions and limitations, including the assumption that the risk of antibiotic-resistant infections causing death is uniform worldwide. Some experts, such as Marlieke de Kraker from Geneva University Hospitals, have expressed skepticism about the accuracy of such forecasts, citing the unpredictable nature of antimicrobial resistance trends. Despite these uncertainties, the study provides valuable insights into the potential impact of antibiotic resistance on global public health.